【券商聚焦】中国银河:具身智能行情转暖修复趋势已经出现 当前估值处于历史中值水平

金吾财讯
Jun 10

金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券表示,26Q1具身智能进入深入调整期,主要系Optimus V3量产不及预期,叠加板块轮动所致。自26Q2起板块热度开始持续上升,行情转暖修复趋势已经出现,当前估值处于历史中值水平,基金持仓占比暂处低位。中长期看,“十五五”开局明确具身智能未来产业定位,量产元年亦是价值成长布局良机。短期看,26H2市场关注度首先仍会聚焦于大厂量产节奏,其次是模型能力、场景落地取得突破,再次是持续的订单验证超预期;由于量产渐进,供应链的Capex逐渐开启,产业或迎来新一轮的投资机会。主机&关键零部件环节看龙头。该机构预计26年全球出货5-10万台,同比翻数倍。1)短期内特斯拉Optimus地位难以撼动,但需要更重视国内发展速度以及对供应链的影响,大脑等技术开发与制造分离、代工方案或成为可行路径,从而孕育重要“链主”玩家;2)工业、特种场景的验证优先级依然比较高,但同时商业服务等已反映出真实需求。关键零部件环节该机构更看好已经率先卡位,并具备规模化生产经验的龙头企业,灵巧手或是量产最后一公里也是边际变化最大的环节,此外还建议关注热管理方向。弹性关注待涨环节,看好电子皮肤和轻量化环节。电子皮肤技术门槛高,远期空间高,有望在下一轮行情中表现出更强的弹性;具身智能轻量化影响到功耗、散热、成本等诸多层面因素,同时材料替代逻辑边际变化大,亦有望带来显著弹性。

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