【券商聚焦】兴业证券维持阳光保险(06963)“增持”评级 指其配置性价比较高

金吾财讯
Jun 10

金吾财讯 | 兴业证券发布研报指,阳光保险(06963)2025年业绩整体符合预期,维持“增持”评级。

关键财务与业务要点:1)2025年归母净利润同比+15.7%至63.1亿元,税前利润同比-12.3%,主要受财险亏损影响。NBVM同比+0.1pct至16.9%。集团EV较年初+4.3%。财险承保亏损10.3亿元,剔除保证险后COR为98.9%,实现承保盈利4.9亿元。2)寿险银保NBV同比+64.6%,占整体NBV比例提升至61.8%;个险NBV同比+18.5%。新单保费同比+47.3%,其中银保新单同比+69.0%。传统队伍活动人均产能2.2万元,精英队伍为传统队伍2倍以上。13个月继续率97.1%,25个月继续率95.5%,业务品质向好。3)投资端,总投资资产规模较年初+16.7%。CII为6.1%,OCI债券等固收类市值下跌影响表现。权益类资产占比同比+1.4pct至21.4%,其中股票+权益型基金占14.9%。公司边际增配TPL资产,期末OCI股票占总股票比例降至68.1%,以提升投资弹性。

推荐配置。1)在银保渠道强势扩张的背景下,阳光凭借过往银保端的合作网点众多、差异化服务、人均产能较高等优势有望抓住银保高速发展的机遇,支撑总体价值保持增长。2)财险主动出清高风险业务,核心业务承保盈利能力持续改善。3)投资策略上在保持稳健风格不变下适当提升TPL资产占比,在“慢牛”行情下预计短期的投资业绩弹性明显提升。4)当前PEV仅0.27,处于历史23%分位数,配置性价比较高。 

风险提示:长端利率大幅下行,权益市场大幅回撤,新单销售显著不及预期。

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