【券商聚焦】交银国际:AI主题或继续主导下半年行情

金吾财讯
Jun 09

金吾财讯 | 交银国际发布科技行业下半年展望,AI资产在1Q26出现波动行情,但是在Agentic AI 的兴起和主要云服务商资本开支的持续上修驱动带动下,与AI相关的硬件和半导体股票在 2Q26 之后大幅跑赢大盘。该机构统计主要海外CSP资本开支预计在2026年同比继续上升90%。该机构认为中国内地CSP资本开支有进一步上调空间。该机构将AI高景气度的判断推延12个月,认为高景气度至少持续到2027年底。该机构认为,加速器厂商预计在2H26集中推出新产品。 该机构认为,国产加速器芯片的竞争力预计进一步增强。总体看,该机构认为上游半导体公司库存下降明显,产能普遍供不应求。该机构将存储器行业高景气度的时间预测延申一个季度到2Q27。该机构看好大市值核心标的估值跟进:考虑到AI拉动相关行业需求持续处于高位,并对整体产业链造成溢出影响,该机构继续看好存储,计算,通信以及上游的半导体制造/设备/器件/封测在2H26持续保持高景气度。该机构上调A/H/海外半导体制造评级到超配,上调A/H多种元器件评级到超配,下调A/H 智能手机及产业链评级到低配。该机构看到总体A/H估值处于历史高位,美股半导体/硬件科技估值处于较高水平。该机构认为AI行情预计继续,但提醒投资者估值回调风险。该机构认为大市值的半导体设计和制造公司估值水平相对较低,建议关注中芯国际(00981/买入),英伟达(NVDA US/买入),台积电(TSM US/买入)。

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