金吾财讯 | 老铺黄金(06181)股价延续近期下行态势，截至发稿，报446港元，跌5.71%，成交额2.95亿港元。花旗此前研报指，老铺黄金今年5月的销售额预计将受节日促销带动而超过4月，但观察到天猫“618”活动至今的表现较预期弱，可能是由于高溢价导致对价格敏感的客户流失。该行指出，由于2月涨价后金价走软，老铺黄金相对于传统金饰商的溢价已超过55%，高于2024年前约30%及2025年约10%的水平。考虑到在线销售预期下调，花旗将老铺黄金2026财年收入预测下调6%至377亿元人民币，但受惠于毛利率预测提升，净利润预测维持在82.6亿元人民币不变。对于2027至2028财年，为反映价格敏感客户流失后的年化表现，该行将两年收入预测降29%至30%，纯利预测降27%至28%。基于预测2027财年市盈率15倍，该行将老铺黄金目标价由1162港元大幅下调至700港元，维持“买入”评级。
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