金吾财讯 | 中信建投研究认为，市场低估了油价短期和中期的上行风险。短期看，一方面是霍尔木兹海峡已经关闭数周，更多油井被迫关停，而长时间关停将会导致部分产能的永久损失。长期看，在低资本开支的背景下，美国的库存井和新钻井数量屡创新低，这也意味着美国原油高产量难以为继，未来剩余供给和定价权有望掌握在中东手中。此前市场过分乐观估计了中东战事的结束进度，然而现实世界的矛盾越发显著，近期市场开始逐渐定价远期油价的上行，同样需要关注潜在的通胀风险。
金吾财讯 | 中信建投研究认为，市场低估了油价短期和中期的上行风险。短期看，一方面是霍尔木兹海峡已经关闭数周，更多油井被迫关停，而长时间关停将会导致部分产能的永久损失。长期看，在低资本开支的背景下，美国的库存井和新钻井数量屡创新低，这也意味着美国原油高产量难以为继，未来剩余供给和定价权有望掌握在中东手中。此前市场过分乐观估计了中东战事的结束进度，然而现实世界的矛盾越发显著，近期市场开始逐渐定价远期油价的上行，同样需要关注潜在的通胀风险。
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