金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券表示，目前房企普遍采取积极坚决的去化策略，存量库存或将主动去化。房企拿地意愿有所修复，优质产品的补货有望提高房企行业质量。该机构预测2026年商品房销售面积为8.22亿方(-6.74%)；2026年销售金额为7.75万亿元(-7.65%)。该机构认为2026年房地产投资额为7.17万亿元(-13.45%)，新开工面积为4.89亿方(-16.81%)。2017年城镇化率首次突破60%，随后城镇化率与商品房销售面积每年同比增速均逐年收窄。房企投拓意愿较过往低，新盘推货萎缩。2024年美国二手房成交套数占比达到85.74%，同年上海该值为64.52%，我国二手房成交占比有望进一步提高。上海2026年2月出台“沪七条”后，2026年前4月的二手房成交686.77万方，为2022年以来新高。受到人口等因素的影响，未来新房和二手房面临的主要客群发生转变，存量房有望成为房地产的主要成交产品类型，新房和二手房市场有望逐渐分化。
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