【券商聚焦】中金公司:龙头的资金和技术实力正在将行业功率曲线"陡峭化" 光伏产品的差异化逐步显现

金吾财讯
Jun 12

金吾财讯 | 中金公司表示,龙头的资金和技术实力正在将行业功率曲线"陡峭化",光伏产品的差异化逐步显现。过去十年光伏制造端竞争高度同质化,技术扩散快、后发者进入门槛低,龙头与二三线产品差距有限。但本轮周期底部差异化逐步显现——BC和TOPCon3.0均需要较高投入,二三线企业大多数产能不具备升级的资金和技术空间。该机构统计高功率产能(640W+)目前约200GW,产品差异化拉开。Beta端,银价高位但出口退税取消推动海外顺价、反内卷政策使行业价格中枢获得支撑。银价上涨带来电池组件成本压力;2026年4月光伏出口退税取消为组件报价上涨提供了窗口期,龙头凭借海外渠道优势率先实现顺价。反内卷政策持续推进,组件强制性安全标准、能效指标等抬升行业价格中枢,叠加三季度各家企业低价订单消耗完毕交付价格上行,行业筑底反弹。Alpha端,高功率组件溢价和银包铜降本成为龙头利润增量,3Q26头部企业业绩有望显著改善。据该机构测算,660W高功率组件相较620W标准产品具备5分/W以上溢价。同时,2026年是银包铜正浆量产元年,背面银包铜的导入有望降本3分/W。叠加Beta修复,足以覆盖大多数龙头企业1Q-2Q26的经营亏损,该机构认为3Q26头部企业经营端有望修复。

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