金吾财讯 | 美伊达成协议定于周五重启霍尔木兹海峡航运，但各国原油库存消耗规模处于历史低位，市场机构预判各国补库周期长达数月，油价或将长期维持高位区间。中东冲突期间多国释放战略储备对冲供给中断，特朗普政府累计授权释放 1.72 亿桶战略原油储备；标普全球能源 CERA 统计，2 至 5 月全球商业与国家储备合计提取 4.4 亿桶原油及成品油，截至 6 月 6 日当周美国战略石油储备单周提取超 6600 万桶，剩余库存规模接近历史减半关口，待释放操作完成后储备仅余 2.5 亿桶，仅可覆盖美国两周国内消费。
埃克森美孚 (XOM)、雪佛龙 (CVX) 高管先后对外预警库存风险，前者称美国原油库存逼近前所未有的低位，库存触底后油价存在大幅上行动力；后者提示短期缓冲库存持续消耗，近两月油价上行压力加剧。CERA 测算，低库存背景下 2026 年全球原油需求年均至少回落 240 万桶 / 日，全年布伦特原油均价预估 110 美元 / 桶，即便海峡恢复通航，库存缓冲缺失将持续对油价形成底部支撑，供需再平衡周期显著拉长。
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