金吾财讯 | 港股内房股整体走软，截至发稿，龙湖集团(00960)跌6.52%，旭辉控股集团(00884)跌6.12%，融创中国(01918)跌6.02%，金辉控股(09993)跌5.56%，新城发展(01030)跌4.85%，中国金茂(00817)跌4.43%，世茂集团(00813)跌4.35%，美的置业(03990)跌4.30%，万科企业(02202)跌4.18%。消息面上，中信建投研究指，当前房地产市场筑底信号明确，一线城市率先量价企稳回升，二手房活跃度显著高于新房，成为全国回暖标杆，但三四线城市仍深陷库存高企、价格阴跌的困境。供给端延续提质缩量态势，土地供应与新开工面积持续下滑，未来新房供应收缩将加速供需平衡，保障房建设稳步推进但仍面临资金、土地等堵点。资金端行业融资规模创历史同期新低，央国企与民企融资成本差距拉大，居民加杠杆意愿持续低迷成为市场修复的主要制约。风险化解取得决定性进展，保交楼任务基本完成，房企债务违约进入重组末期，增量风险基本出清。长期来看，人口总量见顶推动行业从增量扩张转向存量博弈，市场保障双轨制新模式加速构建，政策将坚持“一城一策”，一线城市仍有松绑空间。
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