ChainCatcher 消息，加密分析师 Darkfost 于社交媒体发文表示，比特币当前正面临自诞生以来最严峻的美债收益率环境之一。尽管历史上美国联邦基金利率和美元指数都曾达到更高水平，但目前美国长期国债收益率持续维持高位，30 年期和 10 年期美债收益率均在 4.5% 至 5% 区间波动，叠加市场对年内再次加息的预期升温，导致资金成本维持高位、流动性环境趋紧。
分析认为，在高收益率背景下，投资者更倾向于配置低风险固定收益资产，从而削弱了包括比特币在内的风险资产吸引力。历史经验显示，美债收益率上升往往伴随着金融条件收紧，并对比特币走势形成压力。当前市场正处于关键转折点，风险资产相对于长期国债所提供的风险溢价正在被压缩。不过，如果未来宏观经济前景趋于明朗，投资者重新建立对债券市场的信心，资金流入债市或推动收益率回落，风险溢价重新扩大，从而改善比特币等风险资产的投资环境。市场普遍认为，这一过程可能需要数月时间，其演变路径将在很大程度上取决于美国政府政策及整体经济形势的发展。
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