The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0838 ET - Crude futures continue their retreat on expectations the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding will lead to more oil flowing soon through the Strait of Hormuz. The market appears to be pricing a "quick and sustainable opening" of the strait, Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. "For now, a major vote of confidence is being applied to the success of this plan with limited regard to thorny issues such as financial compensation, sanctions and especially a satisfactory nuclear deal that was largely the reason behind the war." WTI is down 4% at $77.49 a barrel and Brent is off 3.8% at $80.01. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0751 ET - Oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz isn't expected to normalize before late July and is projected to return to prewar levels only by end-September, analysts at HSBC say. "Hurdles include mine clearance, insurance reinstatement, emptying excess Gulf oil storage, repositioning ships, and restarting idled production fields and downstream infrastructure across several Gulf producers," they say. "We expect Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. to ramp up back to preconflict rates relatively quickly while other producers could take longer--months not weeks." In a partial reopening scenario instead, where Iran retains influence over the strait via the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, flows could recover to around 60% of preconflict levels, leaving the oil market in deficit well into 2027, according to HSBC. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0732 ET - Oil prices extend losses on prospects of an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and signs of softer physical demand, as the U.S. and Iran are set to sign a preliminary deal to end the war on Friday. In afternoon trading, Brent crude falls 2.6% to $81.03 a barrel, while WTI is down 3% to $78.29 a barrel. "Physical crude markets also weakened, with the Dubai and Murban forward curves shifting into contango for the first time since the war began, signaling easing concerns over immediate supply shortages," analysts at MUFG. Contango occurs when future prices trade above prompt prices, suggesting reduced anxiety about near-term supply availability. While the prospect of an agreement is clearly supportive for markets, details of the deal have yet to be disclosed. Even if maritime traffic resumes, analysts say it will likely take time for shipping activity and oil flows through the region to return to normal levels. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0610 ET - Palm oil rose, with the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for September delivery 93 ringgit higher at 4,578 ringgit a ton. Despite weaker crude oil prices, strong June export data and bargain-hunting interest likely cushioned sentiment, Kenanga Futures said in a note. Ongoing caution over the potential impact of El Nino on future output may have provided additional support, it added. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

0508 ET - Investment demand for gold and silver is expected to pick up again even if it isn't as strong as before the start of the Iran war, Carsten Menke of Julius Baer writes in a note. The medium-to-longer-term backdrop in precious metal markets hasn't changed much after the progress in the U.S.-Iran deal, with continued central bank buying likely to remain the strongest driving force for gold, Menke says. Meanwhile, demand for Chinese solar silver is likely past its peak due to a continuing substitution with cheaper materials and a plateauing of production, and is likely to struggle for now, Menke says. Precious metal prices are likely to remain volatile until clarity and conviction about U.S. monetary policy returns, Menke says. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

0307 ET - Aluminum prices fall as markets price out part of the geopolitical premium and increasingly shift toward a de-escalation scenario in the Middle East. "Among the base metals complex, aluminium was the most exposed to the conflict narrative given the concentration of smelting capacity and key seaborne trade routes linked to the region," analysts at Sucden Financial say. "As a result, easing supply concerns triggered a broad liquidation of long positions, with volumes rising sharply." In early European trade, three-month futures on the LME fall 0.8% to $3,356.50 a metric ton and are down 5% on the week. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0244 ET - Gold prices hold near Monday's gains as expectations of improved energy flows and lower oil prices eased concerns about inflation and further interest-rate increases. Still, investors remained cautious amid limited details on the U.S.-Iran agreement set to be signed Friday and uncertainty over how quickly shipping routes and commodity exports will return to normal. In early trading, New York futures slip 0.3% to $4,339 a troy ounce, but are up more than 1% on the week. Attention is now shifting to a series of central-bank meetings, with investors particularly focused on the Federal Reserve for fresh signals on the outlook for monetary policy. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0242 ET - Global central banks are likely to step up gold buying over the next 12 months, according to an annual survey of central banks by the World Gold Council. Around 89% of reserve managers surveyed expect global central bank gold holdings to continue growing, pointing towards continued demand momentum for the yellow metal. Gold's performance during a crisis, portfolio diversification and inflation hedging are among reasons for central banks to hold the asset, the 76-respondent survey notes. Gold's role as a geopolitical risk hedge is also prominent among emerging market and developing economy respondents. The findings suggest more central banks are seeing gold as an active, strategic allocation amid geopolitical uncertainty, and less as a legacy holding, says World Gold Council's Shaokai Fan. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0221 ET - Comex gold futures are poised to test resistance at $4,400 an ounce, based on the daily chart, RHB Retail Research's Joseph Chai says in a research report. The futures staged a rebound for a second straight session on Monday, with latest price movements suggesting that market sentiment has turned positive, the analyst says. However, the 50-day simple moving average is trending lower, placing downward pressure on the commodity, Chai says. A failure by the commodity to rise beyond this resistance level could result in a resumption of downward price movements toward initial support at $4,000 an ounce, the analyst adds. Spot gold is 0.2% higher at $4,316.78 an ounce.(ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2348 ET - Morgan Stanley expects the lithium market to remain tight in the near term. China's battery electric vehicle sales rebounded sharply in May, rising 13% on month, says the bank. MS also highlights strong growth in global energy-storage system shipments and truck electrification momentum in China. Lithium supply is, however, also anticipated to pick up, supported by increased prices. MS highlights the resumption of lithium exports from Zimbabwe and some Australian mine restarts, while adding that brownfield expansions are also beginning to emerge. It remains equal-weight on Australia's PLS, which it prefers over peer IGO. MS has an underweight rating on IGO, citing risks to the Greenbushes life-of-mine plan and CGP3 ramp-up. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2249 ET - Palm oil prices rise in Asian trading, supported by stronger soybean oil prices overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. However, he doesn't expect the price uptrend to sustain, given the prospect of weaker crude oil prices following the U.S.-Iran peace deal and slower demand. Ng expects crude palm oil futures to find support at 4,480 ringgit a ton and face resistance at 4,600 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for September delivery is 38 ringgit higher at 4,523 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2207 ET - Aluminium is flat in early Asian trading, with prices facing pressure as investors expect shipments from Persian Gulf producers to resume after a U.S.-Iran deal, according to ANZ research analysts. The Middle East conflict has disrupted around 10% of global supplies, they note. A recovery could also take some time even after reaching a peace agreement, they note. The three-month LME Aluminum contract is flat at $3,379.50 a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 16, 2026 09:15 ET (13:15 GMT)

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