Micron Bulls Are Getting Even More Optimistic About Memory Trends as Earnings Draw Closer

Dow Jones
Jun 16

With Micron Technology’s earnings on the horizon, analysts are feeling even more bullish about the company.

TD Cowen analyst Krish Sankar raised his price target on the stock to $1,500 from $660 in a Sunday note, with that new target representing upside of 53% from Friday’s close. RBC Capital Markets analyst Srini Pajjuri also raised his price target on Sunday — to $1,200 from from $525 — translating to upside of 22% from Friday’s close.

Despite reports that Nvidia is altering its target requirements for its Small Outline Compression Attached Memory Module, Sankar said he expects memory content for each deployed gigawatt of artificial-intelligence computing power to increase, which would benefit Micron.

He pointed to the need for additional racks of central processing units to run agentic AI that uses the memory module. That surging demand for CPUs “has increased buyers’ expectations that pricing strength can persist into” the second half of next year, Sankar said.

In a similar vein, RBC’s Pajjuri said that “stronger pricing and volume assumptions” led him to raise his financial estimates.

The current upcycle for dynamic random-access memory is in its 12th quarter, he noted, while in 2014 and 2018 it lasted eight to nine quarters. Pajjuri said he could see momentum continuing for another five to six quarters, given strong capital-expenditure trends and the rise of agentic AI.

Additionally, high-bandwidth memory, which is a specialized type of DRAM, “justifies a higher multiple,” Pajjuri said, as he expects it to make up a larger mix of DRAM revenue next year when production ramps to support the rollout of next-generation AI chips. He added that HBM should be largely immune to cyclical declines in pricing, since it’s not a commodity product.

Although memory makers are making efforts to address supply constraints, Pajjuri said he expects growth there to remain flat until later next year, as there’s limited space in the clean room where chips are manufactured.

Micron’s stock rose 10.8% on Monday.

TD Cowen’s Sankar said investors will remain focused on the impact of long-term agreements on the memory trade, as producers have so far benefited from rising prices due to tight supply.

This trend has already helped expand Micron’s stock multiple, Sankar said, particularly after Sandisk’s recent earnings showed that customers are willing to sign multiyear deals at seemingly “attractive floor gross margins.”

He expects Micron to report that it has benefited from similar trends when it reports earnings next week. Micron said in March that it had signed its first five-year strategic customer agreement. The SCAs differ from previous LTAs, Micron said, given that there are specific commitments over multiple years that provide more visibility for both the company and its customers.

But Micron “did not provide enough detail around floor [gross margins], cancellation terms, or customer profile,” Sankar said. Therefore, he expects investors to continue watching whether hyperscalers will be willing to commit to pricing years ahead.

Given that the market likely expects Micron’s gross margins to normalize around 60% by 2030, Sankar thinks it shouldn’t be hard for management to keep investors satisfied. Any LTAs that could yield more than 70% gross margins would be “a positive” for the stock, he said.

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