金吾财讯 | 中原证券研究指，2026年以来券商指数持续弱势运行，跑输沪深300指数。券商板块出现全面调整，仅个别个股逆市有所表现，板块平均P/B回落至1.1x-1.2x倍的相对低位区间。在提高资本市场制度包容性、适应性，健全投资和融资相协调的资本市场功能，以及“稳定和增强资本市场信心”的政策定调下，2026年下半年资本市场整体运行有望保持相对强势，证券行业将持续处于本轮上升周期中，全年整体经营业绩有望在2025年的相对高基数下稳中有升，维持行业“同步大市”的投资评级。在整体经营业绩有望稳中有升的预期下，券商板块平均估值持续走低的空间相对有限，板块将在当前的低位区间蓄势震荡整理以酝酿新的投资机会并等待新的走强契机，后续能否有效转强尚待行业基本面与政策面产生共振。建议关注龙头类上市券商A+H股、逐步具备差异化竞争优势的中小上市券商、财富管理业务与机构经纪业务均较为突出的上市券商、个股估值明显低于板块平均估值上市券商。重点推荐公司：中信证券、广发证券、招商证券、方正证券、长江证券、国金证券。
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