金吾财讯 | 招银国际：自4月初以来电解铝板块出现回调，主要由于中东局势缓和、几内亚铝土矿出口可能收紧以及板块轮动等因素影响。该机构重申此前观点：受中东局势影响的铝产能恢复预计将需时12-18个月，主要由于电解槽的内衬更换过程耗时而且昂贵。此外，鉴于美国与伊朗之间缺乏互信, 该机构认为未来冲突重燃的可能性存在，将可能阶段性为中东地区的铝供应带来不确定性。另一方面，考虑到中国宏桥(01378，买入)在几内亚矿业和氧化铝领域的投资，该机构认为几内亚铝土矿出口政策的潜在变化对公司影响在可控范围内。中国宏桥当前股价相当于2026年预期市盈率5.6倍，股息率约为11%，该机构认为具有吸引力。同时, 中国宏桥的主要子公司宏桥控股(002379 CH，买入)当前的预期市盈率为8倍，股息率超过9%。此外, 该机构维持对具备产能增长的创新实业(02788)“买入”评级。
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