金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，6月在美伊谈判进行，谅解备忘录签署背景下，国际油价显著回落，6月19日WTI/Brent期货价格收于76.6/80.6美元/桶，较6月初下跌16.9%/15.2%。该机构认为，原油供应严重短缺状态将有所缓解，而Q3进入全球石油消费旺季，叠加未来全球储备性补库，1-2年内原油价格仍有支撑，该机构下调2026年Brent原油期货均价预测为82美元/桶（原预测90美元/桶），预计2027年均价为70美元/桶。中长期而言，该机构认为全球石油消费拐点加速形成，阿联酋退出OPEC加速原油垄断化供应格局瓦解，产油国边际成本支撑60美元/桶底部中枢价格。考虑到油价存底部支撑，该机构认为具备增产降本能力及天然气业务增量的高分红油气龙头企业，或将助力国内油气资源自主可控；中国能化产业链韧性较强，油价回落后伴随全球下游补库存，化纤、塑料等品类有望景气回暖。
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