招银国际发表报告指，回顾海外龙头TMT公司首季业绩，观察到龙头科技公司2026财年收入及利润预期进一步上修，得益于强劲的AI算力需求及AI持续赋能主业，但同时多家企业上修资本开支指引，导致自由现金流短期承压。从中长期看，该行认为AI投入对龙头科技公司的盈利影响可控，2027/2028财年整体运营利润增速仍有望维持20%以上，自由现金流比率虽然因资本开支短期承压，但自2028财年起有望迎来拐点重新向上。 该行指，软件板块业绩后整体估值有所修复，盈利预期稳健上修，但板块内整体表现仍然较为分化，企业应用软件赛道整体表现平稳，基础设施软件赛道受益于AI趋势表现更加积极。展望未来，该行认为决定基本面和股价的关键在于公司是否能够在AI投入浪潮中获得足够高的收益与ROIC，从而支撑短期业绩稳健以及中长期盈利的可持续增长。综合目前基本面和估值水平，该行推荐微软、谷歌、亚马逊、Palo Alto Networks及Meta。
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