Tiger Brokers

铜业板块深度调整 江西铜业(00358)跌7.57% 国内需求疲软 机构指铜价高位承压震荡

金吾财讯
Jun 23

金吾财讯 | 铜业板块深度调整，中国大冶有色金属(00661)跌1.92%，中国有色矿业(01258)跌2.97%，中国黄金国际(02099)跌3.56%，五矿资源(01208)跌5.20%，星凯控股(01166)跌7.33%，江西铜业股份(00358)跌7.57%。消息上，中国房地产市场已出现长期拐点，对铜等大宗商品的需求也将处于相对疲软的阶段。从国内近期经济数据看，铜的下游需求也确实缺乏强劲支撑。国家统计局数据显示，在铜的主要应用领域，汽车产销和家电产量均出现负增长，地产行业持续疲弱。值得注意的是，今日港股的下跌与伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜的走势形成了背离。昨夜LME期铜收涨54美元，报13649美元/吨。华源金属研究指出，本周内外盘铜价走势出现分化，伦铜、沪铜分别录得0.25%、0.11%小幅上涨，美铜下跌1.48%。库存层面呈现国内显著去化态势，伦铜、纽铜、沪铜库存环比分别变动-3.28%、+0.27%、-23.57%，国内电解铜社会库存环比下降10.79%。需求端表现相对平稳，电解铜杆周度开工率为67.35%，环比小幅回落0.12pct。宏观端成为短期行情核心变量，美联储6月议息会议维持利率不变，但点阵图释放鹰派信号，半数官员预判年内存在加息可能，9月加息25BP概率升至51.7%，大幅高于前期水平，加息预期升温对铜价短期高位走势形成压制，行情大概率维持震荡格局。中长期维度，铜矿行业资本开支不足，供给端扰动频繁，行业供需格局有望从紧平衡逐步转向短缺，为铜价长期上行提供基本面支撑。

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