汽车股持续低位调整 广汽集团(02238)跌3.54% 高盛指中国汽车行业整合短期难实现

金吾财讯
Jun 24

金吾财讯 | 汽车股持续低位调整,奇瑞汽车(09973)跌1.17%,赛力斯(09927)跌1.21%,零跑汽车(09863)跌1.52%,喜相逢集团(02473)跌1.59%,长城汽车(02333)跌1.65%,吉利汽车(00175)跌1.80%,岚图汽车(07489)跌3.09%,北京汽车(01958)跌3.33%,广汽集团(02238)跌3.54%。消息面上,高盛发表研报,重新审视中国汽车主机厂(OEM)行业的周期框架。该行认为行业整合需要三个条件同时满足:(1)OEM处于现金成本水平;(2)管理层在盈利能力及扩张上妥协;(3)OEM资产负债表转为净负债。截至2026年首季,14间OEM中有10间仍高于现金成本水平;管理层对销量/利润率/产能的看法分歧;仅1间OEM处于净负债状态。高盛认为,行业整合在短期内难以实现。在该行覆盖的范围内,认为比亚迪、零跑汽车以及小鹏在国内销量增长加速及海外业务拓展方面均处于更有利位置,受惠于持续扩张的新出口车型管线及销售网络,评级同为“买入”。中原证券研报维持汽车行业“同步大市”投资评级。乘用车板块优先布局具备新能源和出口双重动能的行业龙头;商用车板块把握“出口高景气延续”和“国内政策驱动复苏”两大主线。汽车零部件板块方面,AIDC发电建议聚焦在技术、产能和客户资源上具备核心优势的企业;人形机器人建议配置已形成机器人业务体系化卡位的汽车零部件龙头;液冷领域优先把握已在上游关键部件打样量产、客户认证推进的。

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