The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1344 ET - Core inflation momentum is rising in Canada but there is no evidence of pass-through from higher energy costs to other prices, Servus Credit Union's Charles St-Arnaud says. The economist sees nothing in the inflation report for May that would concern the Bank of Canada, and with oil prices declining of the past week it suggests there could be some easing in gasoline prices, depending on whether the U.S.-Iran ceasefire holds. "The Bank of Canada will be pleased to see no evidence that higher energy costs are being passed on to consumers, with almost all measures of underlying inflation easing in May and the momentum in underlying inflation remaining very low." (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1339 ET - There is convincing evidence a temporary soft patch in Canada on underlying inflation is being left behind, argues Scotiabank's Derek Holt. Median, mean and traditional core inflation measures picked up in May and the three-month moving averages are restoring above-2% momentum in price pressures at the margin, the economist says. Scotiabank maintains a call for higher borrowing costs later this year. Holt says that unlike the Fed and Bank of England, the Bank of Canada's nominal policy rate is at the bottom end of the neutral rate range. "It's time for taking out some insurance against an emerging inflation challenge. My fear is that the BoC will wait too late again," he says. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1152 ET - Oil futures add to losses as the market takes an optimistic view of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. "The market's immediate direction still appears tilted to the downside as tensions in the Middle East ease," Fawad Razaqzada of Forex.com says in a note. But additional weakness may prove more measured if demand remains robust through the third quarter, or the return to pre-war production levels proves more difficult than expected, he adds. Further declines could also be met by efforts to replenish strategic reserves, he says. "Such buying activity could provide an important source of support for the crude oil forecast over the coming weeks." Most active WTI is down 3.1% at $73.54 and Brent is off 3.6% at $77.67. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1143 ET - Four ballast LNG tankers either owned by a Qatari shipping company or operating under long-term charter agreements with the country crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, according to Kpler's ship-tracking data. The crossings follow reports that state-owned QatarEnergy is preparing to resume LNG shipments and aims to restore most of its export capacity as U.S. and Iranian officials negotiate the terms of a peace agreement. Qatar, one of the world's top three LNG exporters, halted LNG production early in the conflict after the near-closure of Hormuz and Iranian attacks on Ras Laffan, the world's largest liquefied-natural-gas export hub. On Monday, a blast hit a key natural gas facility at the Ras Laffan industrial complex, but Qatari authorities said the country's LNG facilities and export capabilities remain unaffected. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

1045 ET - The amount of sugarcane and refined sugar coming out of Brazil in the 2026/27 marketing year is down from the prior year, says Unica in its latest research note. Through the second week of May, sugarcane produced in the south-central region of Brazil totaled 41.55 million metric tons, down 13.1% from the same time last year. Sugar production totaled 2.2 million tons, down 25.6% from the previous year. But total ethanol production rose to 2.13 billion liters, up 4.6% from the previous year. The firm adds that ethanol demand is up in Brazil this year. "All sampled municipalities in São Paulo, Paraná, Goiás, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Minas Gerais presented economically advantageous ethanol prices compared to gasoline," says Unica. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1016 ET - Exxon Mobil put a timeline on its plans to move its legal home: the oil company expects its redomiciliation from New Jersey to Texas to take effect on July 1. As part of the change, ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation will become the publicly traded parent company, replacing Exxon Mobil Corporation of New Jersey, the company says. Shares will continue to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol XOM. Exxon won shareholder approval for the move last month, after CEO Darren Woods pitched Texas as a state where lawmakers, judges and juries better understand the oil business, lending a kind of familiarity that would lead to what he called more reasonable and productive decisions from the state's officials and citizens. (kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)

1012 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are higher after hotter weekend weather forecasts for July add to expected cooling demand, while rising production limits gains. "Tension between intermittent bullish heat and bearish supply gains may remain central in the summer," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. But in the short term, "building heat aligning with seasonality and technicals imply a test of resistance as traders position ahead of July final settlement." Nymex natural gas is up 1.1% at $3.268/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0952 ET - The Bank of Canada shouldn't "get too fussed" about headline inflation rising past 3% to its highest level since late 2023, says Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Capital Markets. The reason? The central bank's preferred measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile price changes, remain close to 2%--or the midpoint of the BOC's inflation-targeting range. Mendes adds the share of CPI components with annual price growth of 3% or more held steady in May. The retreat in energy prices amid promises of a reopening in the Strait of Hormuz points to a somewhat softer data set for June. Mendes has remained steadfast in calling for no change in the BOC's policy rate in 2026, citing labor-market softness and excess economic slack. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0949 ET - Oil futures start the week lower with talks between the U.S. and Iran continuing after a rise in tensions at the weekend, while transit through the Strait of Hormuz increases. WTI for July delivery is down 1.9% ahead of today's expiration, with the most-active August contract off 2.1% at $74.23 a barrel. Prices moving lower into expiration is "normally a sign that ready supplies remain ample," Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. Lost demand could linger for several more months before getting back to normal, while uncertainty remains about nuclear talks and "who really has the most control of the Strait of Hormuz," he says. "Near term all eyes will remain on the peace talks with Iran." Brent is off 2.8% at $78.32 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0946 ET - Canada's headline inflation accelerated in May to 3.2%, or the highest level since late 2023. BMO Capital Markets chief economist Douglas Porter says that, importantly, the Bank of Canada's two main measures of core CPI were largely unchanged in the month, near 2%. After energy, food prices are playing a notable secondary role in pushing inflation upward, Porter says--pointing to a 45% year-over-year rise in tomatoes due to reduced production in Mexico. Further, food purchased from restaurants was cited by Statistics Canada as a main contributor toward the 3.2% May reading. "The persistence of food inflation is a significant thorn," Porter says. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0943 ET - Core inflation in Canada picked up ever so slightly in May but remains contained, says Michael Davenport of Oxford Economics. Inflation excluding food and energy rose 0.1 percentage points to 1.6% year-over-year in May, which Davenport attributes to higher airfares and travel tours. "However, there were no signs of a significant broadening of inflation across the CPI basket," Davenport says. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem echoed a similar message this month while keeping the policy rate unchanged at 2.25%. Oxford expects headline inflation to hover below 3% for the remainder of 2026, but excess slack in the economy and a deceleration in housing costs should keep core CPI below 2%. The BOC sets rate policy to achieve and maintain 2% inflation. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0916 ET - Canadian inflation heated up more than expected, hitting a more than two-year high 3.2% in May versus the 3% economists expected. The main driver was a spike in gasoline prices, which have risen three months running and were the highest in May since mid-2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. Beyond the pump, price pressures were softer. Excluding gas, the consumer price index rose at a slightly faster 2.2% than April's 2%. The pace of traditional core inflation excluding food and energy ticked up to 1.6% on-year. And the average of the median and trim measures that are closely watched by the Bank of Canada held steady at 2.05%, remaining in line with the central bank's earlier projection for 2Q. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 22, 2026 13:44 ET (17:44 GMT)

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