金吾财讯 | 华泰证券研报指出，市场对2027至2028年海外电解铝扩产带来的供给过剩存在普遍担忧，涵盖印尼、印度、沙特等多地新建产能。数据显示，2026至2028年海外电解铝新增产能分别贡献105.5万吨、211.5万吨、211.5万吨，叠加国内产能4500万吨上限约束、增速持续放缓，全球电解铝供给同比增速保持温和。需求端稳步扩张，2026至2028年全球电解铝需求逐年递增，整体供需维持紧平衡，2026年呈现短缺状态，后续过剩幅度有限。成本端方面，全球电力紧张、氧化铝价格企稳抬升，2027至2028年海外高成本电解铝冶炼完全成本底部稳定在3000美元/吨以上，对应国内铝价底部约22000元/吨以上。当前市场对铝板块远期价格估值偏低，未充分反映行业供需紧平衡与高成本支撑现状。
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