金吾财讯 | 锂业双雄午后止跌转涨，天齐锂业(09696)涨4.68%，赣锋锂业(01772)涨3.63%。消息面上，碳酸锂主力合约今日盘中一度拉升涨超2%，报159900元/吨。机构方面，高盛在中国基础材料检测报告中指出，锂供需缺口持续，前5月碳酸锂产量同比增45%，下游磷酸铁锂正极产量同比增65%，6月国内锂市场缺口约8%；碳酸锂价格较年初低点翻倍，但6月中旬环比回落11%，氢氧化锂出口价格仍坚挺。伯恩斯坦最新研报中上调锂价预测，并将天齐锂业A股目标价从73元上调至80元，H股从61港元上调至65港元。伯恩斯坦预计，2027年锂价可能达到每吨32500美元。从供给侧结构看，中国增长约30%，智利约25%，阿根廷约106%，而澳大利亚仅增长约6%，津巴布韦约16%。供给增长的地区分化是市场收紧快于预期的重要原因。伯恩斯坦认为，锂市场仍处于中期周期复苏阶段，而非接近见顶。年初至今里，需求增长约32%，远超供给增长的约24%，库存天数已降至约20天。历史经验显示，这一水平往往伴随更强的价格动能。
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