招银国际:美联储年内加息可能较低 政策宽松预期有机会大幅上升

智通财经
Jun 23

智通财经APP获悉,招银国际发布研报称,美国联储局本次会议重新定价沃什时代下美联储反应函数,美联储将完全抛弃前瞻性指引,政策框架将更加灵活,基于精确实时数据和资产负债表传导等因素决断,并更注重2%通胀目标公信力。会议声明移除大量前瞻性内容,联储目标表述较先前就业与通胀的双重目标变为“致力于实现物价稳定”的单一表述,显示联储立场明显转鹰。

该行表示,点阵图预测年内联储局将加息一次,为本次会议主要鹰派信号。但联储实际政策立场可能更为温和,一方面加息与不加息票委均为9票平票,另一方面今年有投票权的关键票委立场更偏向鸽派。沃什记者会没有回答任何前瞻性问题,并刻意呈现双向平衡,强调通胀目标的同时淡化了加息预期共识度。他将成立5个新工作组改革联储未来政策框架。

减少前瞻性指引一方面将给予联储更高灵活性和更快政策反应,但也将明显增加市场波动率,因市场需要围绕利率路径反复定价,前端利率、美元和高估值权益资产波动或更为明显。期限溢价将上升,利率曲线可能走向熊平,美元短期内将小幅走强,贵金属将承压。

招银国际仍认为联储年内加息可能较低,当前联储更多是通过鹰派沟通来引导市场重新定价利率路径,借助金融条件收紧提前实现部分加息效果。随着下半年美国经济放缓和通胀回落,该行认为政策宽松预期有机会大幅上升。

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