金吾财讯 | 中信建投表示，当前钢需由装备制造、高技术制造和外需链三条轴线托住，新动能领跑格局鲜明，但传统链条仍受需求偏弱掣肘，冷热分化拉大。地产调整的负反馈远未消化，对财政派生与产业链的拖累持续；基建受化债惯性与项目收益约束，更多是托底而非弹性项；制造业中产业趋势明确的方向保有韧性，出口是当前最实的稳定器。1-5月，国内生铁产量35471万吨，同比下降3.1%；粗钢产量41553万吨，同比下降3.9%；钢材产量59299万吨，同比下降1.5%。当前粗钢减量并非需求塌陷式被动减产，而是地产偏弱、制造托底背景下的结构性克制，为全年减量预留了空间，有助于修复供需平衡和吨钢盈利。对于普钢投资建议，由于普钢产品多用于建筑行业，而当前地产复苏时间尚不明朗，在资产配置时可以优先考虑高股息、高分红以及各个下游领域中的龙头企业。对于特钢新材料投资建议，特钢属政策大力支持行业，我国中高端特钢新材料内有“进口替代”，外有“全球份额提升”，目前我国中高端特钢比例仍与日本、欧美等发达国家相差较大，伴随着高端制造业快速发展，中高端特钢需求有望迎来较快增长，企业估值有望提高。能源用钢正在经历总量平稳、结构上行的深刻重塑，取向硅钢、高强特厚板、耐候钢、抗氢脆管线钢等高端品种持续供不应求，盈利溢价与订单可见度双双领跑全行业。
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