金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，在国内传统经济周期和金融周期的运行中，信贷脉冲往往成为经济景气度和市场景气度的领先指标。近两年来，信贷指标与宏观经济“异步”以及市场反映“钝化”，核心在于经济结构、产业结构和融资结构变迁的三重中期因素。该机构通过还原中期趋势、剔除短期扰动项的方法，构建月度频率的传统内需信贷指标，对于信贷需求和宏观经济有更好的刻画，同时该指标对内需权益品种和债券市场的指示意义亦明显提升。在经历年初以来的资金大幅流出后，该机构测算当前银行A股平均静态股息率约4.3%，部分大市值标的股息率在5%以上，平均静态PB为0.60x。展望2026-27年，银行板块步入风险周期尾部区间，ROE一阶导已经改善，该机构预计今明年行业ROE绝对数将企稳在8-9%区间，助力板块估值提升。下半年有望演绎"高确定性权益资产"重估，绝对收益空间大。个股方面，推荐组合为商业模型优秀，权益回报乐观、低估值大行估值修复、步入稳定增长周期、稳健品种空间乐观的标的。风险因素包括：宏观经济增速大幅下行；银行资产质量超预期恶化；监管与行业政策的不利变化；利率环境发生大幅不利变化；各公司战略推进不及预期。
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