Iran warned vessels against straying from approved Strait of Hormuz routes following its attack on a ship Thursday

Traffic is still flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a Bloomberg report.

Oil futures were on track to tally a third-straight weekly loss on Friday - but after President Donald Trump confirmed Iran violated its cease-fire deal with the U.S. by attacking a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, some analysts believe prices have fallen too far, too fast.

Risks to oil supplies in the region remain high as Trump, in a Friday post on Truth Social, said Iran's drone attack on a cargo ship in the strait was a "foolish violation of our Ceasefire Agreement."

"Oil prices are still going to be volatile," said Tariq Zahir, managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors, adding that they've "fallen too far, too fast."

"The cease-fire is very fragile," Zahir told MarketWatch. "Expect volatility to continue on headline risks until we see some solid agreement and the strait completely open without tolls."

Don't miss: Oil may no longer pose the same threat to the global economy - but another risk 'may be around the corner,' says Citigroup

Despite the uncertainty, the West Texas Intermediate contract for August delivery (CL.1) (CLQ26) declined 3.9% to $69.09 a barrel, on track to post a loss of 8.9% for the week, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Brent crude's August contract (BRN00) (BRNQ26) fell 4.5% to $71.89 a barrel, poised for a weekly loss of nearly 11%. Both oil benchmarks are headed for their third-straight week of losses, with each down more than 20% month to date.

It appears that it would take a substantial increase in hostilities in the Middle East to change sentiment in the oil market, said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management - suggesting that the latest developments don't quite qualify as a substantial increase, at least at this point.

Crude oil has been the "alpha leader for commodities" in responding to war news, as prices ran up more quickly at the start of the conflict relative to gasoline and other commodities, so it's been leading the way back downward faster as well, Cieszynski noted.

With U.S. benchmark WTI below $70 a barrel Friday, crude is now getting back into the range it was trading at before the war started, and into an area where it may find support, he added - particularly as demand may remain elevated while countries "stabilize and then restock their reserves."

"Unless the war resumes, however, that demand may keep the price stable rather than push it up," Cieszynski said.

Oil prices had briefly rebounded on Thursday, driven by Iran signaling that it was tightening its control over the Strait of Hormuz after authorities said vessels not following their approved routes "will be dealt with accordingly."

On Friday, though, the oil rebound faded. A Bloomberg report indicated traffic through the strait was still flowing in both directions, and oil prices turned lower. Two fully loaded tankers were exiting the Persian Gulf, and four empty very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, were among those inbound, according to the report.

Still, questions surround the free passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, with Bloomberg reporting Friday that Oman has told European officials that ships may be charged some fees to transit the waterway.

Analysts at Commerzbank, led by Barbara Lambrecht, wrote in a Friday note that market participants are being "too optimistic," as strait traffic is only rising incrementally. "If the number of transits does not increase more strongly next week either, skepticism in the market is likely to grow, so that the oil price is likely to rise again," the Commerzbank team said.

"The mini-tsunami of released barrels is weighing on the front end of the futures curve, while refined-fuel markets remain tight," strategists at ING, led by Warren Patterson, wrote in a note on Friday. "As a result, refinery margins stay elevated, delaying price relief for end users of diesel, jet fuel and, not least, gasoline as the Northern Hemisphere driving season reaches its peak."

-Myra P. Saefong -Nora Redmond

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 26, 2026 14:10 ET (18:10 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.