机构:欧洲央行不太可能再次加息,但可能将利率维持在高位更长时间

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Yesterday
【机构:欧洲央行不太可能再次加息,但可能将利率维持在高位更长时间】牛津经济研究院的Oliver Rakau在一份报告中表示,随着能源价格下跌抑制了通货膨胀,预计欧洲央行不会再次加息。他补充说,不过,在中期通货膨胀面临上行风险的情况下,该央行可能会将利率维持在高位的时间比之前预期的更长。“欧洲央行可能会选择‘更长时间维持高利率’的情境,即撤销6月份加息的时间远晚于我们预测的2027年3月,或者根本不撤销。”Rakau说,虽然相对疲软的经济限制了能源冲击产生第二轮效应的风险,但德国的财政刺激措施和走弱的欧元仍可能带来上行压力。他补充说,如果中东冲突再次爆发,再次小幅加息仍可能是一个选项。

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