金吾财讯 | 高盛 6 月 26 日研报指出，过去一年标普 500 指数上涨由企业盈利驱动，二季度财报将成为市场重要观测窗口，金融股 7 月 13 日开启披露，八成标的 8 月初完成发布，英伟达 (NVDA) 定于 8 月 26 日披露业绩。除必需消费品外全行业盈利预期上调占比更高，机构预测二季度标普 500 每股收益同比增 22%，全年盈利增速 24%，一季度实际盈利 27% 大幅超出 12% 的前期预测。
AI 基础设施企业贡献二季度指数近六成盈利增量，仅美光科技 (MU)、英伟达合计贡献超四成增长，科技、能源板块盈利领跑。市场当前存在多重不确定性，上游成本抬升压制利润率预期，市场高度关注科技巨头 AI 资本开支回报与实体企业 AI 落地成效；市场情绪指标升至 2024 年 12 月以来高点，高盛预测 2026 年末标普 500 点位 8000 点，对应约 9% 上行空间。
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