金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，2月末以来中东地缘紧张局势蔓延，霍尔木兹海峡运输不确定性一度放大全球油气供应缺口，推动油价快速上行，并带动全球可观测库存去化；但高油价亦对石化原料、航煤、汽柴油等需求形成抑制，中国炼厂开工、原油进口及成品油表观消费均有所回落。往后看，伴随中东局势缓和、霍尔木兹海峡通航预期升温，以及中东复产和非OPEC+增量释放，原油供需或逐步进入再平衡阶段，下调26年Brent原油期货均价预测至82美元/桶。但油田复产、运输恢复、保险正常化等环节仍存在不确定性，26H2市场仍可能面临阶段性供应缺口与补库需求支撑。该机构认为，能源安全背景下，具备资源禀赋、成本优势及稳健分红能力的综合能源龙头仍具配置价值。
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