金吾财讯 | 黄金股集体走低，灵宝黄金(03330)跌7.04%，招金矿业(01818)跌6.45%，紫金黄金国际(02259)跌6.45%，山东黄金(01787)跌5.28%，赤峰黄金(06693)跌5.09%，中国黄金国际(02099)跌3.49%，潼关黄金(00340)跌3.45%，紫金矿业(02899)跌3.03%，中国白银集团(00815)跌1.89%。消息面上，华泰证券认为本轮美联储加息预期对金价压制力度远弱于2022年；当前空头拥挤叠加央行持续购金长线逻辑稳固，黄金高赔率突出。（1）中东局势缓和后，市场交易或回归基本面与利率关注；该机构认为未来美债利率或将受制于财政赤字，加息幅度有限；若未来美国重启短暂加息25-50bp，对应金价的负面影响或在$50/oz以内。（2）资金端GLD一年期看跌偏度已逼近极值，空头或已充分计价，若边际利好落地或易触发空头平仓，带动金价反弹。（3）中东冲突缓和后，中长期去美元化逻辑或被强化。央行、个人和金融机构或将持续进行资产再配置，对黄金进行较高强度的增持。2026-2028年金价仍然有望升至$5400-6800/oz。
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