德意志银行表示，宏观经济向好态势与科技板块景气度提升，将支撑美国企业二季度盈利突破此前较高市场预期。
由班吉姆·查达领衔的该行策略师团队撰文称，全球制造业采购经理人指数大幅回升、油价走高、美元走弱，叠加人工智能相关业务盈利快速增长，多重因素共同推动美股企业盈利同比增速有望达到29.3%，较市场一致预期高出约3个百分点。
机构给出的二季度企业业绩指引整体极为乐观，市场由此上调标普500指数盈利增速一致预期至26.2%，该数值不仅高于一季度25.2%的四年峰值，更是历次非衰退复苏周期财报季预期最高纪录的两倍。
市场共识认为科技行业将持续领跑盈利增长：半导体板块增速大幅攀升，对整体盈利增速贡献11个百分点；其余大型科技龙头贡献6个百分点；标普500其余板块合计贡献9个百分点。
策略师判断，当前市场环境下财报季美股收益率将趋近历史均值。目前标普500指数涨幅温和，市场股票仓位接近中性水平；历史数据显示，财报季期间该基准指数75%的时段收涨，平均涨幅2%。
从中期维度看，当前市场持仓水平远低于亮眼盈利增速与乐观预期所对应的合理仓位，美股后市表现有望进一步走强。
责任编辑：刘明亮
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