【券商聚焦】中金公司:创新药产业链发展明确 制药供应链订单趋势良好

金吾财讯
Jul 02

金吾财讯 | 中金公司表示,创新药产业链发展明确,制药供应链订单趋势良好。虽然受宏观环境/大国关系扰动/流动性轮转等因素影响,创新药板块进入短期估值回调阶段。但从产业趋势来看,中国创新药BD与临床数据读出依旧保持良好的发展趋势,license out和new co等形式证明中国创新药正在不断国际化。国内外良好的医药产业投融资,为产业带来新一轮研发投入的同时,也为上游CXO等产业带来潜在订单,制药供应有着较强业绩增长确定性。该机构指,纯内需短期仍面临一定压力,期待支付改革突破。该机构认为医保支付端约束是院内需求释放偏慢的主要原因。此外医疗反腐的常态化也一定程度影响需求。近两年以医保局,卫健委及银保监会为代表的相关部门持续深化支付改革,多元支付渐进成型,未来商保有望打开内需增长空间。创新产业科技进取+稳健红利传统防御。该机构一方面看好医疗科技进取属性:除创新药的突破与国际化外,AI制药与脑机接口等新技术的发展同样可圈可点,部分国产器械也慢慢走出结构性的国际化机会;另一方面,高分红医药股估值相对低位,并购整合带来价值重估机会的同时,也有望积聚新的成长动力。风险因素包括:研发失败,流动性不足,商业化不及预期,集采降价超预期,宏观环境风险,海外经营风险。

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