金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，2026年5月底南方电网负荷提前创历史新高，大幅提升了市场对极端天气及水电来水的关注度。本报告基于官方机构对我国不同地区主汛期降雨预测和历史上厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件对水电站主汛期发电量影响复盘，发现：1）厄尔尼诺事件并不完全代表当年主汛期来水偏枯，反而水电站发电量总体上会受益于厄尔尼诺事件；2）2Q26以来高频出库流量数据不好的雅砻江水电有可能迎来主汛期的发电量yoy转正。该机构认为当前水电资产配置性价比突出，估值处于历史较低水平，且2026E股息率较高。
金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，2026年5月底南方电网负荷提前创历史新高，大幅提升了市场对极端天气及水电来水的关注度。本报告基于官方机构对我国不同地区主汛期降雨预测和历史上厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件对水电站主汛期发电量影响复盘，发现：1）厄尔尼诺事件并不完全代表当年主汛期来水偏枯，反而水电站发电量总体上会受益于厄尔尼诺事件；2）2Q26以来高频出库流量数据不好的雅砻江水电有可能迎来主汛期的发电量yoy转正。该机构认为当前水电资产配置性价比突出，估值处于历史较低水平，且2026E股息率较高。
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