野村警告:“史诗级“供应链缺口将至 AI半导体周期远未见顶

智通财经
Jul 01

智通财经APP获悉,野村在最新研报中反驳市场对AI半导体周期见顶的担忧,随着云厂商资本开支持续扩张,2026年下半年将出现严重的供应链错配,这非但不是周期尾声的信号,反而印证了本轮景气度的长期可持续性。

报告指出,随着云厂商资本开支持续扩张,2026年下半年或将迎来"史诗级"供应链错配,先进封装、PCB、CCL等零部件短缺将推动涨价与盈利持续上修。报告强调,尽管台积电正激进扩张其晶圆级封装产能,但真正的供应瓶颈将转移至晶圆级基板(WoS)及印刷电路板(PCB)、覆铜板(CCL)等较小零部件。

野村表示,基板组件、印刷电路板、覆铜板、IC基板、高端电容器、电源管理芯片和光学组件均已出现供应短缺。报告指出,许多组件供应商在规划产能扩张时低估了AI驱动的订单增长。

在AI芯片产能分配上,野村预计2027年英伟达将占据台积电55%的CoWoS产能,谷歌TPU份额将从2026年的23%跃升至27%,或挤压AMD等其他厂商空间。此外,代理型AI(Agentic AI)的崛起正意外拉动服务器CPU需求,AMD预测2030年服务器CPU市场将超1200亿美元。

基于上述逻辑,野村上调九家亚洲AI科技公司目标价,首推台积电,同时看好联发科、日月光投控、联发科等。野村认为,近期半导体股的回落是一个买入机会,因为持续的定价能力和盈利上调仍是该板块的最大催化剂。

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