金吾财讯 | 招商证券研究认为，2026年行将过半，白酒板块年初短暂反弹，剩余时间呈单边下行趋势，中证白酒年初至今下跌24%，其中个股分化明显，茅台表现相对较优。持仓来看，股东集中度下降，主动基金、港资、证金/汇金持续减仓，被动基和个人投资者持仓提升。食品指数来看，Q1相对跑赢沪深300，主要在于春节旺季需求改善，业绩有支撑，加上地缘冲突影响下资金避险，但Q2以来回调明显。分板块看，餐饮链受益于业绩改善表现更优，新消费高位回落。配置层面看，各板块基金持仓占比均有所下降，资金仍处于外流节奏。该机构承认为，底部不应悲观，关注三条主线。当前板块估值回落较为充分，市场隐含了较为悲观的预期，龙头企业股息率与其他行业对比，具备一定的吸引力。同时，价格指数已企稳回升，各企业持续出清，历史包袱，经营状态更为健康，底部不应悲观。展望H2，建议关注三条主线：1）主线一：CPI改善预期下的量价修复；2）主线二：估值回到合理区间的成长品类；3）主线三：股息托底，左侧布局需求修复。风险提示：需求恢复不及预期、行业竞争加剧、成本上涨、产品创新、渠道拓展不及预期等。
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