Tiger Brokers

瑞银拆解能源行业盈利逻辑 炼厂高毛利支撑区域油企短期行情

金吾财讯
Jul 02

金吾财讯 | 瑞银分析师发布行业研判报告，指出欧洲能源企业二季度财报将呈现整体向好特征，核心驱动来自油气现货价格走高、炼油裂解利润大幅抬升，叠加大宗商品交易业务创收表现优异；但原油价格已进入下行通道，市场交易重心逐步转向明年供给过剩预期。霍尔木兹海峡通航恢复顺畅，行业供给宽松预期升温，机构预判布伦特原油年内剩余时段均价 80 美元 / 桶，2027 年均价回落至 75 美元 / 桶，同时全球库存补库需求将从结构上抬升油价底部区间。

欧洲炼油业务盈利弹性突出，该行欧洲炼油利润指标环比大涨 70%，区间均值达到 25 美元每桶，Repsol、Galp、OMV 三家企业将成为本轮高毛利周期核心受益标的。短期炼油利润具备持续支撑，中东多地炼厂进入检修重启周期，产能阶段性收紧；原油价差走阔、俄罗斯炼油装置持续停工，进一步巩固裂解利润上行逻辑。

行情端同步反映机构乐观判断，西班牙雷普索尔股价上涨 1%，报价 22.33 欧元；葡萄牙 Galp 上涨 0.2%，报价 18.645 欧元；奥地利 OMV 涨幅 2.5%，报价 56.20 欧元，资金提前交易二季度炼油业务盈利修复预期。短期炼厂供需偏紧支撑油企业绩与股价，但远期原油供给宽松明确限制油价上行空间，行业呈现短期业绩强、中长期价格承压的分化格局。

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10