摩根大通最新贵金属研报明确指出，前期由避险情绪与央行积极购金共同驱动的看多行情阶段已宣告终结。随着央行购金、亚洲实物需求及散户买盘等需求动能全面降温，对利率敏感的黄金ETF资金流向已重新主导金价走势，黄金与美国实际利率之间的负相关关系在沉寂数年后强势复苏。这意味着金价的涨跌，再度紧系于美联储的下一步动作。 尽管金价已从4000美元附近出现技术性反弹，该行仍警示近期风险偏向下行。一旦夏季经济数据表现超乎预期，迫使美联储提前升息，金价恐跌破4000美元大关，引发技术性卖压，进而下探3500至3600美元区间。该行将黄金第三季均价预测下调至每盎司4300美元、第四季预测下调至每盎司4500美元，较先前预期大幅缩减20%至25%。 尽管短期展望趋于保守，该行并未放弃长期看多立场：预计上述结构性力量将于2027年重新发力，带动金价逐季走高，第一季金价预测4600美元、第二季4700美元、第三季4800美元、第四季5000美元，全年均价有望达到4775美元。不过，前提是美联储实现更为实质的鸽派转向。
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