保险股上扬 中国平安(02318)涨3.35% 机构指中长期资负共振利好板块估值向上

金吾财讯
Jul 08

金吾财讯 | 保险股上扬,中国平安(02318)涨3.35%,中国人寿(02628)涨2.26%,中国太平(00966)涨2.22%,新华保险(01336)涨2.08%,友邦保险(01299)涨1.58%,中国人民保险集团(01339)涨1.19%,中国财险(02328)涨0.41%,中国太保(02601)涨0.36%。消息面上,招银国际表示,2Q26保险板块估值承压,主要受资金交易因素的影响,科技主线叠加风格轮动导致主动权益持仓下行,股价和基本面表现背离。该机构预计2Q26险企权益投资规模将延续增长,核心权益有望环比提升,截至1Q26,上市险企核心权益规模达5.9万亿,显示在市场波动下险资仍在入市。人身险方面,负债端NBV有望延续增长,受益于渠道和产品结构改善,3.5%演示利率的分红险产品在7月1日正式停售,部分贡献2Q26业绩增长;期交占比提升利好价值率维持稳健。财险方面,车险保费放缓,但件均保费逐步企稳;车险综合成本率有望在费用率持续压降的基础上小幅改善。非车险保费以个人意健险为主要增长驱动,非车综合成本率有望在新产品备案后逐步改善。中长期看,该机构认为商业健康险及长护险有望在医商保合作深化和银发经济的带动下,成为行业负债端又一大万亿级增长点。资产配置方面,1Q26部分险企把握年初利率高点增配债券并持续扩大权益敞口,预计年内OCI占比将进一步提升,险资对权益红利和交易债配置的兴趣增强。中长期看,资负共振利好板块估值向上。当前板块估值位于过去10年历史低分位,资金结构导致基本面与股价背离,看好板块在2Q盈利修复下的反弹机会。

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