凯投宏观:德国经济或已挺过伊朗战争冲击,但汽车驱动的复苏恐难持续

格隆汇
Jul 07

凯投宏观经济学家Andrew Kenningham表示,在上周强劲零售数据之后,今日工业数据亦出现好转,显示德国似乎已挺过伊朗战争的冲击。5月工业产值环比增长0.9%,这些数据共同表明德国经济可能在第二季度实现扩张。不过,Kenningham指出,工业产出的增长主要受汽车产量推动,而鉴于该行业面临的挑战,这一势头恐难持续。他表示:“尽管德国制造业似乎未受伊朗冲突太大影响,但这并未改变一个事实:从中期来看,其在经济中的占比可能会逐步下降。”

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