摩根士丹利首席美股策略师Michael Wilson在最新一期周度报告中向客户发出明确信号：减持半导体，转向超大规模云计算商。这不是看空AI，而是一次轮动——AI投资周期内已发生过三次类似调整，Wilson认为，这是第四次。芯片股在经历了自3月底以来的历史性涨幅后，近期出现明显降温。高贝塔动量股组合（即存储与芯片股）录得新冠疫情以来最大两日跌幅。Wilson判断，这种回调“可能还有进一步空间”。 Wilson在报告中提出了一个具体类比：半导体走势高度类似白银。理由有两点：其一，两者均经历了抛物线式的价格拉升；其二，两者都与大宗商品市场高度挂钩，而大宗商品价格历来大起大落。他进一步指出，此轮调整将由存储子板块领跌——因为存储是半导体复合体中"最像大宗商品"的品类，价格弹性大，反转也快。
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