【券商聚焦】招银国际:中国经济延续外热内冷 出口和制造业受益于全球AI投资景气保持强劲

金吾财讯
Jul 08

金吾财讯 | 招银国际表示,中国经济延续外热内冷,出口和制造业受益于全球AI投资景气保持强劲。但内生经济明显走弱,居民消费和固定资产投资跌幅加剧,房地产销量继续探底。国际大宗商品价格下跌可能导致PPI转负,工业企业利润和整体经济通缩可能再次承压。财政支出力度减弱,全年赤字完成进度大幅落后预期,政策取向仍在保留空间,下半年可能迎来宽松窗口。人民币兑美元将震荡走强,继续看好港股信息科技、工业和原材料板块。美国经济在下半年可能开始放缓,油价高企挤压居民实际收入和购买力的滞后效应开始显现,非AI制造业表现疲软,同时贸易赤字短期内将拖累GDP,但服务需求韧性和 AI相关投资仍将对经济形成支撑。该机构认为CPI已在5月见顶,随着就业市场在下半年开始放缓,预计美联储全年加息可能较低但会维持鹰派信号。白宫政策重心将转向国内经济议题,预计中期选举前伊朗局势将维持和平现状。美股波动上升,行情转为广度扩散与板块轮动,AI硬件因交易度集中和获利了结等因素导致板块波动加剧。美股整体盈利仍强劲,未来仍具备上行动能,但随着AI行情深入,市场对业绩和确定性要求上升。板块上建议增配周期性和价值风格板块,相对看好半导体硬件、软件、工业与可选消费。

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