猪肉概念走弱万洲国际(00288)跌7.48% 业内指近期猪价反弹但仍未处于周期拐点

金吾财讯

Jul 08

金吾财讯 | 猪肉概念走弱，德康农牧(02419)跌3.11%，牧原股份(02714)跌3.41%，惠生国际(01340)跌7.35%，万洲国际(00288)跌7.48%。

消息面上，近期猪价确实出现了一轮快速反弹——全国外三元生猪均价从6月26日的9.47元/公斤攀升至7月7日的11.33元/公斤，10天累计上涨约19.6%。本轮反弹主要源于前期行业集中减重出栏后，大体重肥猪阶段性紧缺，叠加国家压减产能政策信号逐步显现。但业内普遍认为，这轮猪价反弹并不等同于周期拐点到来。当前行业平均养殖成本约12元/公斤，即便猪价回升至11元/公斤，养殖户依旧处于亏损状态。猪粮比仍低于预警线，行业已连续8个月整体亏损。中航证券研报指出，猪价回暖、产能去化提速、资金风格切换三重逻辑支撑生猪板块行情。截至 7 月 4 日全国生猪外三元均价 10.49 元 / 公斤，单周上涨 10.2%，前期养殖户集中出栏后供给收缩，短期猪价上行抬升行业盈利预期。生猪企业产能调减时限提前，行业去化节奏加快，企业需在 9 月前完成产能削减，远期生猪供给收缩将持续利好猪价。市场资金高低切换，消费板块受资金青睐，生猪作为必选消费细分赛道迎来增量资金。

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