The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

2012 ET - JGBs fall in early Tokyo trade, tracking overnight price declines in U.S. Treasurys. Both JGBs and Treasurys tend to move in tandem. JGB prices are also likely weighed by latest rise in crude oil prices, which could lead to higher inflation in Japan and a faster pace of BOJ rate increases. Meanwhile, Tuesday's strong 30-year auction failed to push JGB yields lower, Nomura's FX Research analysts say in commentary. "The government likely needs to provide clear guidance on market implications [of fiscal policy] to restore investor demand for long-term JGBs," they add. The 10-year JGB yield is up 1.5 bps at 2.855%, its highest intraday level since October 1996. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

1951 ET - Japanese stocks may fall due to renewed concerns about the Iran conflict and costs of energy prices. Nikkei futures are down 1.5% to 67520 on the SGX. The dollar is at 162.28 yen, compared with Y162.03 as of Tuesday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on developments in the Middle East after the U.S. launched strikes on Iran and blocked its ability to sell oil legally. The Nikkei Stock Average fell 2.1% to 68256.96 on Tuesday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)

1858 ET - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to announce a rise in the official cash rate by 25 basis points, to 2.50%, at 0400 GMT, but there's plenty of scope for a surprise hold. There's no shortage of economists expecting the central bank to remain on hold given the retreat in oil prices over the last month. On the other hand, the OCR could be as much as 100 basis points below the bank's estimation of neutral, so a hike can be justified given inflation is still above target. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

1620 ET - Treasury yields rise, with the selloff accelerating in late trade as the U.S. revokes the permission for Iran to sell its oil in global markets, in response to Iranian attacks on ships in Hormuz. Crude rises more than 5%, rekindling inflation fears that support bets on a Fed hike in coming months. U.S. consumers' year-ahead inflation expectations rise to its highest level in nearly three years, the New York Fed says. The 10-year yield adds 0.050 percentage point, to 4.529%, at the 3 p.m. ET settle, climbing further to 4.549% as oil futures rally, while the two-year reaches 4.185% after hours. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1534 ET - Oil futures are sharply higher as the U.S. revokes Iran's license to sell oil in response to Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil was part of an agreement reached last month that reopened the strait as the two sides negotiate a peace deal. The resumption in tanker transit through the strait had pushed oil prices back toward pre-conflict levels. WTI is up 5.3% at $72.20 a barrel and Brent rises 5.6% to $75.99. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1517 ET - Live cattle futures are in the process of a sizable losing streak. According to data from FactSet, most-active live cattle futures have finished lower for the past seven trading sessions, shedding roughly 3% of their value in that time. The streak is something not often seen for traders, with cattle finding its new all-time high earlier this year. Hot weather in crop-growing areas that's been supporting those futures may also, in turn, support cattle futures, as those kinds of temperatures are bad for cow pastures, ADM Investor Services says in a note. Live cattle closed down 0.3% to $2.3835 a pound, while lean hog futures closed down 1.6% to 96.925 cents a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1403 ET - The share of Canada's U.S.-bound exports is trending lower. Scotiabank's Mitch Villeneuve and John Fanjoy note the proportion averaged 76% in 2024 and 72% in 2025, and came in at 70% in May 2026. The shift has been driven by a decline in most exports to the U.S. and increasing shipments to other regions, especially Europe. Canadian exports heading to the U.S. in May rose 1.5% on-month and were up 9.3% compared with 2024, following three straight months of growth driven by higher oil prices, Villeneuve and Fanjoy say. Exports to non-U.S. countries dropped 0.3% on-month, but were up 49.5% from 2024. On the import side, the share of Canadian imports from the U.S. has gradually fallen to 58% in May from an average of 62% in 2024, the pair say. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1302 ET - Speculation continues over whether or not weakness seen in bitcoin in June will extend into July. The token has stayed mostly rangebound in recent trading, but some think the leading cryptocurrency showed several signs last month that its bear market had overextended itself. "The picture is beginning to look less like a market falling apart and more like one approaching a turning point," say analysts with Cex.io in a note. The firm says that in June, more bitcoin in circulation was trading at a net loss versus a net gain--which is unusual. "In previous cycles, Bitcoin hit its cycle bottom within three months of this crossover," Cex.io says. Bitcoin is flat at $63,800 today. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0739 ET - The war-related spike on oil prices, coupled with heavy artificial-intelligence capital expenditure, makes interest rates likely to remain elevated, AllianceBernstein's Scott DiMaggio says. "We don't think the Fed's going to hike, but it's a more challenging environment for them to cut." Crude prices have eased from recent peaks, but DiMaggio says the damage for inflation is done, making it hard to cut. Investment in AI, meanwhile, should keep debt issuance high and boost economic growth. "We've had what, four quarters in a row of upward revisions to the capex expenditure expenditures, and now we're looking at like $1.6 trillion over the next four years," he says. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

The U.S. corporate bond market remains healthy, but massive debt issuance by large corporations in the AI technology race will keep yields elevated for hyperscalers, AllianceBernstein's Scott DiMaggio says. The market "is differentiating between the big issuers, the hyperscalers, and it's kind of forcing them or making them pay up for that issuance." He adds that "the rest of the market or many other pockets of the market are still going a bit tighter and are stable." DiMaggio says fixed-income managers must rely on careful analysis to identify specific mispriced corporate credits, rather than looking at entire sectors as broadly cheap or expensive. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1121 ET - Canadian trade flows continue to be shaped by the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy, though the broader expectation remains that trade will become less of a drag on Canadian growth than it was in 2025 as the international environment gradually stabilizes, Royal Bank of Canada's Abbey Xu and Nathan Janzen say. The country's goods-trade surplus widened to about C$4.2 billion in May from the prior month's revised C$3.4 billion, as exports rose 0.9% and imports fell 0.2%. The economists say export volumes excluding price effects fell 0.5% for the month but are still tracking a large increase in the second quarter as a whole. Import volumes edged lower as well, albeit mainly thanks to a pullback in gold imports, Xu and Janzen say. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1044 ET - A French appeals court upheld former Rassemblement National leader Marine Le Pen's embezzlement conviction, but modified her sentence, allowing her to run for president next year. However, it remains unclear whether she will stand, given that she has indicated it would depend on not being sentenced to electronic monitoring. Moreover, with the precedent set by Giorgia Meloni's Italian government and the party's efforts to appear more business-friendly, a potential RN victory is viewed by financial markets as less disruptive than in previous presidential elections, ING economist Charlotte de Montpellier says. But the party remains highly critical of European integration. RN regularly criticizes European fiscal constraints, excessive deficit procedures, and austerity policies, at a time when France's fiscal challenges loom large, de Montpellier says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 07, 2026 20:12 ET (00:12 GMT)

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