金吾财讯 | 内银股强势，农业银行(01288)涨5.39%，中国银行(03988)涨5.19%，建设银行(00939)涨5.11%，工商银行(01398)涨4.47%，重庆银行(01963)涨4.42%，邮储银行(01658)涨3.48%，交通银行(03328)涨3.47%，中国光大银行(06818)涨3.46%，中信银行(00998)涨3.27%。国信证券表示，二季度银行基本面和资金面背离，三季度大概率回归基本面定价。一季度上市银行营收和净利润实现较好增长，强化了2026年银行基本面筑底的信心。但二季度申万银行指数下跌9.1%，核心矛盾在资金面，科技成长行情加速强化，市场风险偏好急剧抬升，资金涌向高赔率的科技赛道，银行板块被系统性减配。该机构判断三季度资金面扰动趋于尾声，一是宽基ETF规模大幅下降，流出压力明显放缓；二是，科技板块估值大幅扩张后赔率优势收窄，7-8月中报密集披露窗口将推动定价逻辑从风格博弈切换为业绩验证，多因素共振下，大概率不会延续二季度的极致行情。
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