研报掘金丨国投证券：首予粤港湾智算“买入”评级并看高至20港元，AI业务驱动估值重塑

格隆汇

Jul 08

国投证券发布研报指，首次覆盖粤港湾智算(1396.HK)，给予“买入”评级及目标价20港元，对应2026E/2027E/2028E市盈率约57倍/35倍/20倍。该行指，粤港湾智算已全面转型为AI算力运营服务商成为港股市场较为纯正的AI算力标的，其AI业务驱动的高增长确定性将推动公司估值重塑。报告核心逻辑认为，AI算力业务全年并表将带来清晰的收入跃升。2025年AI业务仅并表约两个月即贡献6.17亿元收入，2026年首次体现全年并表效应后，收入弹性较大。公司构建了国内领先的万卡级算力服务能力，截至2025年底，天顿数据已交付及运营FP16稠密算力超42,000PFLOPS。同时，公司已锁定超150亿元的算力服务合同，合同期限以3-5年锁价合同为主，为未来收入增长提供了高度确定性。另一大看点是福田国资的战略赋能。深圳福田国资平台通过向天顿数据下属子公司鸿策数据投资8亿元，为其在深圳福田区的算力项目落地服务器采购及市场拓展提供资金与资源支持。业绩方面，该行预计公司收入增长主要由AI算力技术服务及高性能服务器相关业务驱动，预估2026E-2028E营业收入分别增长至42.5亿、79.9亿及130.1亿元，对应同比增速为323.6%、88.2%及62.8%；同期净利润将提升至4.79亿、7.84亿及13.70亿元，对应同比增速为755.2%、63.5%及74.8%。

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