金吾财讯 | 摩根士丹利新近发布的美股市场策略报告指出，此前主导美股行情的半导体、AI 算力板块上涨动能逐步消退，市场资金开启大范围板块轮动，投资主线将扩散至更多具备盈利改善空间的行业，AI 产业链内部也出现从上游芯片向下游云服务商的资金转移。报告分析，自 3 月末开启一轮强势上涨后，半导体板块交易拥挤度显著抬升，市场对 AI 资本开支增速产生分歧，芯片厂商与大型云服务商业绩预期差距拉大，共同造成板块行情走弱。但该行强调，本次调整仅为 AI 产业周期内部轮动，并非 AI 投资主线终结。短期机构更看好微软、亚马逊、Meta 等超大规模云服务商，这类企业依托成熟主业对冲 AI 投入波动，AI 应用落地带来盈利上行空间，同时存在成本优化潜力。未来市场也将更加看重企业基建投资的开支管控能力。宏观层面，油价回落、利率预期趋于平稳、通胀受控三大变量拓宽市场配置窗口，美联储加息压力缓解利好利率敏感型资产。除科技板块内部切换外，摩根士丹利新增四大重点看好赛道：可选消费、交通运输、区域银行与生物科技。其中消费、交运板块受益油价下行带来的成本红利，盈利预期持续修复；生物科技则在降息预期与行业并购活跃度提升双重催化下迎来估值修复窗口。机构同时提示风险，伴随资金从涨幅居前的芯片龙头撤离、分散布局至估值性价比更高的板块，美股主要宽基指数短期波动或将加剧。不过市场普涨格局仍具备延续基础，资金正逐步流向盈利改善、风险收益比更优的细分赛道。
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