金吾财讯 | 猪肉板块部分上扬，德康农牧(02419)涨5.48%，牧原股份(02714)涨4.15%，中粮家佳康(01610)涨2.94%，万洲国际(00288)涨2.32%。消息面上，7月9日全国生猪报价达11.36元/公斤，录得连续第11日上涨，较4月低点累计涨幅已超20%。产能端也在继续去化，6月能繁母猪存栏月环比下降0.98%，自2025年8月起已连续11个月去化。7公斤断奶仔猪价跌至157元/头，创年内新低，显示远期补栏意愿仍弱。业内人士指出，大肥猪结构性紧缺是短期价格上行的重要推力。130公斤以上大肥猪较标猪溢价扩大，南方拉猪车集中北上，东北大肥猪基本清空，显示可流通猪源偏紧。二次育肥入场积极性提升，叠加养殖端惜售情绪，共同压缩了短期供应。广发证券在行业点评中判断，猪价最低点已过，周期拐点临近。其核心逻辑是，6月养殖深度亏损叠加产能调控政策持续推进，行业母猪存栏继续去化，供需格局正逐步改善。该机构认为，2026年二季度或为本轮周期猪价最低点，下半年猪价有望迎来趋势性拐点。
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