大摩预判2026全球并购规模达6.4万亿美元 有望刷新2021年历史峰值

金吾财讯
Jul 10

金吾财讯 | 摩根士丹利周四发布最新行业展望报告称,受股市回暖、企业并购信心修复及监管环境宽松化多重利好驱动,2026 年全球并购交易总额有望触及 6.4 万亿美元,一举超越 2021 年创下的历史并购热潮纪录。此前数年高利率与市场剧烈波动压制企业并购意愿,全球交易持续低迷,而今年行业迎来全面复苏。数据显示,二季度并购市场动能显著提速,已披露交易规模同比暴涨 64%,软件、公用事业、能源、医疗四大板块成为交易主力,同期完成交割的并购金额同比提升 33%。尽管年初中东地缘冲突、AI 行业变革焦虑一度拖累市场情绪,但华尔街机构已逐步消化相关利空。监管环境转暖成为本轮并购潮重要推手。大摩分析师指出,本届美国政府反垄断审查尺度明显放宽,大型跨行业交易受阻风险大幅降低,并购外部环境持续改善。资金端同样具备充足支撑,全球另类资管机构手握约 4.3 万亿美元待投放闲置资金,二季度私募主导并购公告数量同比上涨超 10%,海量弹药将持续释放交易需求。机构同时提示风险,后续潜在加息仍是压制并购活动的核心变量,融资成本抬升会增加杠杆收购落地难度。不过目前本轮并购周期展现出较强韧性,地缘不确定性缓和后,企业加速业务整合意愿进一步提升。市场将聚焦下周美国头部银行二季度财报,信贷、股权融资数据将为并购景气度提供进一步验证,也会影响投行全年交易业务收入预期。

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