金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，在2026年整体消费偏弱的大环境下，乳制品的需求韧性持续凸显：行业正从此前“奶价低迷带动上游养殖去产能、下游静待需求复苏”的基本面左侧，逐步进入右侧验证区间，供给收缩与需求企稳的信号均在增强。上游产能去化方向明确，Q3本身存在季节性奶价利好，供给端由于热应激、原奶产量预计呈现季节性走弱，需求端迎来双节备货周期，供需错配或将使得26Q3奶价企稳回升，推动行业迈入周期反转的窗口。需求端，乳制品作为基础消费品类的防御属性持续验证。该机构依然坚定看好26年原奶周期筑底，奶价26H2有望开启温和向上，下游需求有望企稳，散奶价格回升后小乳企发动价格战的能力偏弱、使得行业竞争趋于缓和，乳制品板块正走出一条“量起、价稳、利润修复”的独特轨迹。建议聚焦业绩确定性，择优布局基本面扎实、存在预期差的乳制品上下游龙头企业。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.