金吾财讯 | 中金公司认为当下中国精酿啤酒发生的最大变化是主流价格带从30-50元/400ml变迁至10-20元/1L，消费者对精酿啤酒的认知从“小众奢侈品”转变为“大众消费品”。根据灼识咨询，2025年精酿啤酒零售规模831亿元，26-28年CAGR为21%，25年风味精酿零售规模177亿元，26-28年CAGR为38%。该机构认为精酿啤酒得以实现普惠化的核心原因在于国内零售行业结构性变革，渠道端的效率提升降低了精酿啤酒的流通成本。相比于传统分销，即时零售渠道周转更快，满足精酿对产品新鲜度的要求，并且能够快速响应市场趋势，给予了区域品牌低成本试错机会。线下零售商的变革能力升维，从货架运营向用户运营迭代，在用户数据和深度整合的供应链能力支撑下，通过自有品牌布局精酿啤酒在大众市场的结构性缺口。该机构指，集中度CR5仅有22.4%，消费者洞察能力+供应链响应速度决定格局。目前格局尚不稳定，该机构认为具备产品创新和供应链快速反应能力的公司有望持续赢得份额。
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