Tiger Brokers

【券商聚焦】交银国际：展望7月 车市有望延续环比修复

金吾财讯
Jul 10

交银国际表示，6月乘用车市场环比修复延续，全国零售160.2万辆，同/环比23.2%/+6.1%。新能源零售100.7万辆，渗透率维持62.8%高位；自主品牌零售份额提升至68.6%。出口表现持续强劲，乘用车出口87.7万辆，同比+82.3%，其中新能源出口49.9万辆，同比+152.7%。展望7月，随着油价回落、安全新国标落地、车船税调整预期逐步明确，以及重点新车陆续交付，车市有望延续环比修复。该机构认为，行业机会仍集中在三条主线：一是出口高景气延续，具备海外渠道、本地化生产和规模优势的自主龙头更具确定性；二是新能源渗透率维持高位，具备强产品周期和智能化能力的头部车企有望持续受益；三是物理AI在Robotaxi、人形机器人等领域的商业化推进，有望带动车企估值体系向“智能终端+物理AI平台”延伸。该机构建议关注：小鹏集团(09868 HK/XPEV US/买入)，下半年新品周期明确，L05 上市、增程车型推进及VLA/Robotaxi/人形机器人布局有望打开估值空间；吉利汽车(00175 HK/买入)，新能源矩阵完善且出口高增，产品结构优化和盈利改善有望持续兑现；比亚迪股份(01211 HK/买入)，出口持续放量，高端品牌发力及智能化提速有望进一步提升盈利水平。

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